The UK Ministry of Defence has published an intelligence update to Twitter in which it claims that the bridge that links Crimea with mainland Russia will not be fully operational again until September 2023.
The bridge, which allows for both a road and rail crossings to Crimea, was damaged in an attack in October 2022 but Crimean officials had claimed that repairs to the road section could be completed by December 2022.
However, in private briefings it is believed that President Putin has been informed that there was a need for further construction work which would mean there would be some degree of disruption to road traffic until March 2023.
As for the damaged rail bridge, the UK Defence report claims that its replacement “has been contracted for completion by September 2023”. This is despite claims from the Russian Deputy Prime Minister that the repair timeline would be expedited.
The UK statement acknowledged that one rail track is currently open but that “rail transport remains restricted” and that “repair activity will be heavily dependent on weather conditions through winter months”. It claims that the attack on the bridge has “disrupted Russian logistics supplies for Crimea and southern Ukraine” and has “reduced Russia’s ability to move military equipment and troops into the area by rail or road”.
Added to the recent attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol and the probable withdrawal from Kherson, the Ministry of Defence estimated that recent developments “complicate the Russian government’s ability to paint a picture of military success”.
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